An American Viewpoint on: Futuristic Scenarios in the India-Pakistan Relationship

http://newsonterror.com/future.html

If US think-tanks had their way, India's most cherished dream, to emerge as a superpower, would be a reality. This is a result of a Study undertaken by a Panel of American Military Strategists* who present three extreme scenarios - of Pakistan being overcome by a US-backed Indian confederation, Sino-Indian hegemony and a win-win China - conjured up by an American study.

The Year 2010 - US Bombs Pakistan

"The United States of America uses its B-2 bombers in the year 2012 to launch conventional air-strikes to destroy Pakistani nuclear facilities in a bid to prevent the nukes from falling into the wrong hands. The extraordinary US action follows an unsuccessful Indian conventional attack on Pakistani nukes, and a Retaliatory Pakistani nuclear strike against Indian border forces. This sparks the disintegration and disappearance of Pakistan, and creation of an expanded Indian Confederation or Superstate."

This is not some Nostradamus indulging in apocalyptic visions. It's just one of the many futuristic scenarios culled out from the "Asia 2025" study - a 147-page Opus - conducted by the US under secretary of defence (policy). Written last year and distributed in limited circles, these documents show that US defence planners are now shifting their focus from Europe to Asia where they would wish to contain the threat of an Islamist Pakistan and an economically-resurgent China. This may in future lead the US to seek closer alliance with India.

2010-12 C.E. Pakistan near collapse; Face-off over Kashmir; Pak uses nukes on India; US takes on Pak Nukes

Rand Corporation's Ashley Tellis, one of the 15 top-guns of American policymaking, who took part in the study, told Outlook: "These are long-range perspective studies. Their chief virtue is that they help policymakers think about alternative futures which would otherwise escape them under day-to-day pressures."

2013-18 C.E. Pakistan accedes to India; India is superstate; India, Iran, U.S. edge China out

This report was a result of a Study held at Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island, between July 25 and August 4, 1999, the study was meant to explore what Asia might look like and what challenges it might pose to US defence and national security planners till the year 2025. The participants realised that the scenarios were speculative and cautioned that they were not predictive. "Rather they are highly imaginative descriptions of things."

2010-25 C.E. Indonesia fragments US intervenes Sino-India pact US retreats India/China in control

An Asian diplomat in Bangkok added: "The remarkable thing is that India has become such a major factor in US defence policymaking." The nuclear tests by the Vajpayee government coupled with India's emergence as a global IT superpower are bound to lead, sooner or later, to a radical rethink on US defence alliances. What this means is that the US will soon see India as a partner of choice.

2015-25 C.E. China flexes muscles Offers India deal S. Korea, Japan push US out India S. Asia hegemony

The Year 2010 - India Finally Overcomes Pakistan in an Epic Civilizational Struggle against the Islamic Jihad (War to Convert the entire human population in India to Islam)

The Day India Overcame Pakistan in an Epic Civilizational Struggle lasting One Thousand years

The "New South Asian Order" scenario begins unfolding in the year 2010 with the imminent collapse of Pakistan, where ongoing economic crises, ethnic conflicts and the government's helplessness on the law and order front render it increasingly unstable.

"Sindhis, Baluch and Pathans, who have long resented a Punjabi-dominated Pakistan, rebel. Mohajirs take to the streets. Islamic extremism adds to the instability in two forms - Taliban's destabilisation efforts and the growing power of the " the study says.

In contrast, India successfully combines political decentralisation and economic reforms, generating rapid growth based on steep decline in population growth and a massive influx of foreign direct investment. Simultaneously, China's economic resurgence and belligerence in East Asia brings the US closer to India. As Pakistan slides into anarchy, the US remains focused on North Asia with its forces deployed in Japan and South Korea.

By 2012, the Pakistani state is totally paralysed and loses control to Islamic extremists who infiltrate Kashmir.

"India demands that Pakistan end the Islamic incursions. When Pakistan fails to respond, India moves into Azad Kashmir. Pakistan issues a nuclear ultimatum for Indian withdrawal from Azad Kashmir. The Chinese echo Pakistan's ultimatum and begin mobilising along India's eastern flank between Nepal and Bhutan to sever the Mizoram-Nagaland-Assam-Sikkim outpost of India, and threaten to use 'all available means to stop Indian aggression'. The US urges restraint, and despite other flashpoints, the US sends naval forces to the Bay of Bengal and warns China to stay out," the study speculates.

Fearing that Pakistan would use its nuclear weapons, India launches an unsuccessful conventional strike on the former's nuclear capabilities. Next, Pakistan launches nuclear strikes against Indian forces along their common border, driven by a "use it or lose it" rationale.

The US intelligence shows that Islamists in Pakistan are seizing the remaining Pakistani nuclear weapons. This goads the US to launch "a conventional strike on Pakistan's nuclear sites".

"The extraordinary US action is also motivated by a desire to preempt a full-scale nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India. The US strikes by deploying deep penetration warheads launched from B-2 bombers to destroy Pakistan's remaining nuclear forces. Faced with the reality of US-Indian cooperation, China backs off on the northeastern front," it adds.

"Total anarchy prevails in Pakistan. The Indian army moves in to restore order. As the country disintegrates, Pakistan's regions accede incrementally to India. The Sindhi, Baluch, and North West Frontier Province parliaments vote to join an Indian-led confederation. An Indian Confederation emerges. Isolated Punjab is compelled to join the confederation and merges with its Indian counterpart to form a greater Punjab province within the confederation," the scenario goes.

"India's central government grants extensive internal autonomy to the Erstwhile Pakistani Provinces which are now confederal units within India in exchange for control over their defence and foreign policies.

Economically vibrant, the confederation is recognized as the regional hegemon and an economic magnet for trade and energy flows. The disappearance of Pakistan and the emergence of the Indian Confederation have a cascading effect across Central Asia. Afghanistan, is dismembered by its neighbouring states - Iran, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan - who move in to annex the territory controlled by their own ethnic groups."

The study says that Pakistan disappears by 2020, and the Indian Confederation emerges as a regional superstate.

With Central Asia stabilising, energy pipelines from Central Asia, via Iran, to the energy hungry subcontinent are constructed. The East-West orientation of energy and commerce in Central Asia gives way to a new North-South orientation. Iran becomes the main transit country and Karachi the main port, to the East Asian markets.

It sees India becoming a "regional hegemon", and US planners are now urging the US defence department to anticipate a heightened Indian economic and strategic role in the region, raising the question: What does all this mean for the US presence in Diego Garcia and the potential for military cooperation with India?

In the end, the US discovers unexpected partners in India and post-Islamic Iran

In the end, the US discovers unexpected partners in India and post-Islamic Iran. Both countries (India and Post-Islamic Iran) take on enhanced roles to protect sea-lanes for oil deliveries, reducing US responsibilities in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf. According to the study, China could respond to India's emergence not by challenging it head on, but by increasing its activities in the Russian Far East and Indochina. It may, thus, challenge US interests in East Asia. It could, for instance, strengthen its position in Indochina and the Bay of Bengal, making Southeast Asia the future arena of conflict and competition.

And, if India does become a future US ally, what kind of development, regional and global, would be needed to cement these ties further? Tellis has a pithy list: "Collapsing Pakistan, aggressive China, threats to Middle East oil, deeper Indian-US economic and military engagement, high Indian growth rates, Indian willingness to participate in combined peace operations with the US."